Edge Board

Chance comes from Pinnacle, the world's sharpest bookmaker, with its margin removed. Value picks always need a Pinnacle price. Without one, the board uses the middle value of at least 4 bookmakers and puts the game on the watchlist, because soft bookmakers disagreeing with each other often looks like an edge when it isn't.

Edge is how much the best available price beats that chance. A 3% edge means you expect to make $3 for every $100 staked over many bets. It is not a guarantee on any one bet.

Need is the lowest price worth taking. Betfair prices are shown after commission.

Stake uses a quarter of the Kelly formula, capped at your maximum per bet. Bigger edges get bigger stakes; no edge means no bet.

Picks are hidden when fewer than 4 bookmakers price the market or when Pinnacle disagrees with the others by more than 8 points. Those numbers are usually bad data.

Win and place chances come from the Betfair exchange, the middle of the back and lay prices, adjusted so each race adds up to 100%. This is the betting market's own view.

Fair price is what the horse should pay. Type the Sportsbet price in the box. The edge turns green at +5% or more, which is the level worth betting at; it's red when Sportsbet pays less than fair.

Markets with little money matched are less reliable, and prices are thinner before the day of the race. Check closer to the jump.